Save can not be automated

Save can not be automated

Photo: Toru Hanai / Reuters

While the business is looking for a compromise between the reductions of costs, the requirements of labor.

Reduces the people who work like robots

Last Thursday at the annual meeting of shareholders, the head of the Deutsche Bank’s Christian Swing announced the upcoming release of the staff of 7 thousand people from 97 thousand to 90 thousand by the end of 2019. The Bank does this in the framework of the cost optimization and automation of operations. Top Manager noted that the Bank will continue to invest in the robotics activities, particularly in the development of services for the use of robotic consultants (robo-advising).

At the end of last year, the previous head of the Deutsche Bank John Cryan at the conference in Frankfurt, warned that the development of technologies. “In our Bank there are people who do their jobs like robots.” Tomorrow we will have robots that act like people.

The day before the announcement of the Deutsche Bank released the working report of the International monetary Fund on the impact of automation on the economy.

The experts came to the conclusion that automation is good for growth and bad for equality.

Increased productivity due to robots in the short term.

Robots to improve people skills

Last year the London school of Economics published a study, “How modern technologies are responsible for the fact that the recession is not accompanied by the creation of new jobs?”. It emphasizes that since the beginning of the 1990s, the United States was accompanied by a very weak growth of employment.

One of the obvious explanations, the authors consider the technological change in manufacturing and in services during economic downturns, companies often cut workers with average qualification. They often perform routine work. Thus reducing time is given to finding a new job or change of qualification.

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Save can not be automatedHow is the robotics industries in developed countries

Experts analyzed data for 71 of the recession in 28 industries 17 countries between 1970 and 2011. The analysis showed a pattern – if GDP growth after the recessions is slowly recovering, the labor market is recovering noticeably worse. Regardless of whether this industry is attractive for the growth of automation, or not. From this, experts have come to the forefront of the development of the labor market, especially in developed countries.

With proper business planning. However, this does not apply to all industries. In a recent survey by The Wall Street Journal exams the experience of Bosch, BMW, Electrolux and the Finnish consumer goods company Fiskars.

For example, the factory BMW in Spartanburg until the last modernization of the production work. After the automation the number of jobs it had grown to 10 thousand

New staff engaged in inspections of robots that perform routine work, for example, for placement of sound-absorbing insulation in car doors. Before this work was done by people with less performance and a lot of marriage. Due to changes in the plant.

In the Swedish company Electrolux robotics has created 2 million new places from 2011 to 2017. Removing humans from routine operations to assemble, the company not only perekvalificirovat them of quality controllers, which now need more, but also creates new locations in the divisions of engineering , design and marketing.

Tesla, too much automation has problems. The lack of monitoring of automated processes for welding and the production of components of Tesla Model 3. The error itself has been recognized by Elon Musk. In April, he wrote in his Twitter: “Yes, more automation in Tesla was a mistake.” More specifically, my mistake.

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Where is the power?

In April, the Belgian research organization Bruegel published a study “Impact of industrial robots on the labor market and wages in the EU”. The authors of the impact of robotics industry in six countries: Germany, Italy, Sweden, Finland, Spain and France.

According to their findings, one new robot for 1 thousand employees on average. That is, although robotics and leads to a certain reduction in the labor market, it was below expectations.

The reduction is due to the “substitution effect”. However, this kompensiruet growth of demand for employees for more complex and / or creative positions. The result is a “productivity effect”.

Most robotics negatively affect employees with secondary education or young people. That is, people performing simple work.

Save can not be automatedWho will be robotics

Experts suggest a bruegel the authorities to pay greater attention to the improvement of the labor market, etc. Researchers believe that active retraining can mitigate the impact of robotics at the EU level. For this, the authorities need to be examined in more detail in the labor markets of the different countries.

This month, the Director of the Center for the Study of Technology at the Brookings Institution, Darrell West published the book “The Future of Work: robotics, artificial intelligence and automation”. Mr. West noted that 58% of CEOs plan to cut jobs in their companies and only 16% – increase.

Given the predictions that by 2026, artificial intelligence will begin to write school essays is better than people by 2027 – it is better to drive the truck to 2031 – it is better to work for the seller, 2049 a bestseller, and 2053 – to make the surgical operation.

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The author states that 14% to 54% of jobs in the U.S. in the next 20 years. Hardest hit low-skilled workers, among whom in the US many young people or ethnic minorities. It is fraught with growth of unemployment and social instability.

Darrell West believes that the authorities and society need to radically rethink the whole concept of paid work. In particular, to include such activities as volunteering or caring for own children. In his opinion, the authorities should pay more attention to the regulation of such activities, the creation of new jobs in areas such as health, parenting or care of the disabled and the elderly.

“If the government will not be able to provide early and adequate responses to the challenges of our digital age, we will see growth differences in society,” West.



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